Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2bf0…728f crypto 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,132 (-3%) realized −$4,665 · open −$467
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%165W / 135L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$656per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$843est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$5,035
other 24% −$2,688
sports 19% −$1,532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 45% -12.3%
≤30d 215 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 297 -12.7% -21.0% 56% 49% -13.5%
all 300 -13.6% -21.8% 55% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 48% -13.7%
10% -29.3% 38% -22.0%
15% -36.1% 26% -29.5%
20% -42.4% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$729) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$405 vs −$561 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$4,665
Unrealized−$467
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses165 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$843
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage114d
Avg bet$656
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $684 $217 −$467 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 −$296 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,466 −$1,441 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,461 −$1,424 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,469 −$1,442 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7,431 −$7,395 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,628 +$747 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,532 +$3,003 +196%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,470 +$2,137 +145%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $969 −$943 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,415 +$2,593 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,937 +$3,478 +118%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,918 −$2,845 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,463 −$1,429 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,547 −$2,507 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,496 +$1,049 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,498 +$1,513 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,491 +$4 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,499 +$3,556 +237%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $999 −$974 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,458 −$1,417 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,023 −$340 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,946 +$4,418 +227%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $697 −$690 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $524 +$171 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,946 −$1,422 -73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,832 +$16,868 +289%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1,809 −$1,776 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $974 −$950 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $833 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $512 +$195 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $611 −$300 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $307 +$160 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $409 +$169 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $204 +$89 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $411 +$119 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $413 +$285 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $123 −$116 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $133 +$37 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $211 −$200 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $698 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $304 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,466 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,461 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,469 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $7,431 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $7,375 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $6,628 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $4,535 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,532 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,607 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,470 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $969 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $9,007 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $6,415 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,415 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,937 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,918 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,463 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,547 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,544 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,496 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $3,011 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,498 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,496 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,491 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,054 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,499 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $999 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.52 · official $193.73 · 812 history records