Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2bef…b47c sports 1414 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$860 (-1%) realized −$864 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%852W / 556L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days−$769
14 days−$518
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,138
crypto 1% −$36
other 1% −$25
weather 0% +$5
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 59% -22.6%
≤30d 236 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 53% -8.7%
≤90d 1021 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 51% -12.0%
all 1408 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 48% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 48% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 37% -20.5%
15% -26.7% 26% -28.1%
20% -33.9% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses852 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1408 / 1414
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+92%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 59¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $354 +$64 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $253 +$157 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $708 +$37 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $640 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$44 -86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $207 +$69 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$16 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $432 +$76 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $553 −$550 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$29 +29%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$5 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$17 +155%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,103 +$2 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $31 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$5 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $701 −$700 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 57m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 13h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 85¢ $201 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $151 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $2 34h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $202 36h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $51 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 24¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $745 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 95¢ $701 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $757 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 7¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $151 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $479 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 27¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.59 · official $21.59 (match) · 3500 history records