Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bef…ffd3
sports · 38 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$61 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$51
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)27 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 11 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Mentality Monster 61¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+63%)
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Eva Vedder 79¢ 34¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-56%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 88¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Maxwell Mckennon 68¢ 29¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-57%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Lotte Giants 40¢ 11¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BASEMENT BOYS $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Walczaki 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 43¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner aimclub 63¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Detonate 99¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 74¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Alina Granwehr 77¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Anas Mazdrashki $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Sandro Kopp 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Wanted Goons 67¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Nicolas Kicker 66¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $1 +$9 +650%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $25 +$15 +58%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +126%
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Tamila Gadamauri Jun 13 $5 +$8 +149%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs Rakhimova Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Pablo Perez Ramos Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Madrid: Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 13 $8 +$10 +120%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 13 $4 −$3 -99%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Marta Soriano Santiago Jun 13 $7 +$2 +27%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 +$15 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$37
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 88¢ $8 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 1h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 11¢ $1 1h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Eva Vedder 78¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS $1 1h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Eva Vedder 79¢ $14 1h
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Eva Vedder 79¢ $2 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 40¢ $3 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Mentality Monster 58¢ $4 1h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki BUY Anas Mazdrashki $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 38¢ $5 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon BUY Maxwell Mckennon 67¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $3 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon BUY Maxwell Mckennon 69¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Marsborne 75¢ $10 11h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 20¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $25 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Detonate 99¢ $3 11h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera BUY Antonia Rivera 57¢ $11 13h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY BALU 30¢ $2 13h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera BUY Antonia Rivera 63¢ $7 13h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera BUY Antonia Rivera 72¢ $7 13h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 13¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 67¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +40.7% +27.3% 59% 59% +24.1%
≤30d 27 +40.7% +27.3% 59% 59% +24.1%
≤90d 27 +40.7% +27.3% 59% 59% +24.1%
all 27 +40.7% +27.3% 59% 59% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.3% 59% +24.1%
10% ← realistic here +15.1% 48% +12.2%
15% +4.0% 33% +1.4%
20% -6.2% 30% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.53 · official $50.54 (match) · 70 history records