Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bed…90b7 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%79W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$5
other 12% −$25
world 2% +$4
finance 1% −$17
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤30d 4 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 105 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 59% -13.7%
all 124 +1.9% -7.8% 64% 60% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 60% -11.0%
10% -16.6% 50% -19.5%
15% -24.7% 32% -27.3%
20% -32.1% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses79 / 45
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)124 / 128
History coverage128d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 70¢ 66¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Apr 30 $5 +$5 +90%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $20 +$8 +40%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $20 +$5 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi Apr 28 $25 +$23 +89%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Apr 28 $18 +$13 +69%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 28 $20 +$11 +57%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $20 +$7 +32%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $41 −$10 -24%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $30 +$5 +17%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $30 +$5 +17%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $10 +$5 +54%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $10 +$5 +55%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Cha Apr 27 $40 −$11 -28%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $10 +$11 +114%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) Apr 27 $20 −$18 -90%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Gam Apr 27 $10 $0 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $40 +$14 +36%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $30 −$15 -51%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$4 +41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$4 +43%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$3 +30%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $10 +$4 +39%
First Blood in Game 1? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $8 +$4 +55%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $20 +$6 +30%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $15 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $30 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $47 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $30 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $30 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 42h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 58¢ $20 42h
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff BUY Fnatic 35¢ $10 45d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Movistar KOI 52¢ $5 46d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 46¢ $41 46d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 47¢ $51 46d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $27 46d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $28 46d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 45¢ $20 46d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 74¢ $20 46d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $20 46d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $26 46d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $20 47d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $20 47d
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi SELL SK Gaming 100¢ $48 47d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q SELL FlyQuest 61¢ $31 47d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo SELL Fnatic 100¢ $32 47d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo BUY Fnatic 63¢ $20 47d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 95¢ $27 47d
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner BUY Fnatic 10¢ $1 47d
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi BUY SK Gaming 52¢ $25 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.36 · official $78.36 (match) · 275 history records