Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2bec…9cd3 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$663per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$30
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$27
crypto 22% $0
world 13% +$28
sports 13% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +3.7% -6.1% 50% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -8.0%
all 7 +1.5% -8.2% 57% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage95d
Avg bet$663
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $332 $330 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $378 +$30 +8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $445 −$3 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $301 +$6 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $366 +$10 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,160 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $1,100 +$17 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $1,218 −$42 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $28 1h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $304 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $409 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $64 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $314 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $442 29d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $147 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $298 35d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $307 47d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 88¢ $376 51d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $301 52d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $366 57d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1,160 59d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,160 66d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $84 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $9 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $0 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $9 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $1 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $199 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $7 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $214 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $215 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $0 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $0 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $181 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $198 74d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 88¢ $1,100 82d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $184 92d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.00 · official $330.00 (match) · 65 history records