Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2bec…1664 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 881d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,343 (+59%) realized +$3,425 · open −$1,082
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1,132
politics 23% +$2,798
crypto 12% +$755
other 2% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 13 +60.4% +45.1% 31% 23% +192.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.1% 23% +192.4%
10% +31.2% 23% +164.4%
15% +18.6% 23% +138.9%
20% +6.9% 23% +115.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +223% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +164% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,042 vs −$83 · ×12.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.61 per $1 lost it wins $5.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

881d coverage
Net worth$1,320
Realized+$3,425
Unrealized−$1,082
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage881d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes $1,683 $895 −$787 (-47%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $720 $425 −$295 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $68 −$68 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Zuckerberg divorce in 2025? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Solana hit $300 in December? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $100 +$400 +400%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 02 $90 +$550 +612%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Nov 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Nov 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Aug 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 21 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 21 $500 +$3,212 +642%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 38m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $22 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $363 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 10h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,320.28 · official $1,320.28 (match) · 467 history records