Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bec…f9d6 sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-6%) realized −$106 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$111
14 days−$115
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$114
world 14% −$13
politics 6% −$4
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -33.9% -40.2% 31% 31% -60.0%
≤30d 51 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 37% -17.2%
≤90d 51 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 37% -17.2%
all 51 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 37% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 37% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 31% -25.1%
15% -35.6% 27% -32.3%
20% -41.9% 27% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions98
Markets (closed)51 / 149
History coverage22d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria leading at halftime? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? No 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 59¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Under 70¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $8 −$3 -38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $4 −$3 -75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $7 −$4 -54%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $24 +$20 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $7 +$6 +82%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $34 −$34 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $44 −$43 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $26 −$26 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $14 +$10 +74%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $24 +$19 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $13 +$11 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $50 +$12 +24%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $23 −$23 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $26 +$29 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $9 +$8 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $20 +$22 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 −$9 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $4 +$5 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $29 −$29 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $246 +$15 +6%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $26 +$16 +60%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $24 −$23 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $184 +$45 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $20 −$7 -36%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $34 −$32 -93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $30 +$21 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $14 +$18 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $72 −$71 -98%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 02 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 02 $47 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $70 +$8 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $11 −$4 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1 $0 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $10 +$1 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 27 $10 −$3 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 −$8 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 67¢ $1 0m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 0m
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Eunhye Lee 72¢ $1 1m
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Colin Sinclair 80¢ $1 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $1 20m
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 67¢ $1 42m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $1 42m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 42m
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 90¢ $1 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 42m
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 55¢ $1 47m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY No 74¢ $1 47m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $1 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 47m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 47m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $1 47m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 69¢ $1 47m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 19¢ $1 47m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 53¢ $1 48m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $1 48m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $1 48m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $1 48m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $1 55m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 55¢ $1 55m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $1 55m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 72¢ $1 55m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.42 · official $161.45 (match) · 644 history records