Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bea…c4b2 sports 770 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-2%) realized −$330 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%360W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$173
14 days+$173
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$194
other 15% −$168
world 0% +$9
culture 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +64.9% +49.2% 50% 50% +34.4%
≤30d 85 +10.3% -0.2% 55% 52% -6.7%
≤90d 373 -36.1% -42.2% 35% 33% -43.6%
all 766 +2.5% -7.2% 47% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 46% -11.3%
10% -16.1% 44% -19.7%
15% -24.2% 40% -27.5%
20% -31.6% 35% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses360 / 406
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)766 / 770
History coverage122d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Fujian Sturgeons Fujian Sturgeons 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Shanxi Loongs Shanxi Loongs 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers Rockets 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Suns 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Shuai Zhang 68¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Shanxi Loongs vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Guangdong Southern Tigers 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 Over 88¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$245 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$31 +1016%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +123%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$18 +178%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $109 +$120 +110%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $1 −$1 -74%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 23 $5 +$11 +214%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $4 +$2 +40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $23 +$7 +31%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $129 −$127 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $131 +$10 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $89 +$24 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$13 +64%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar May 20 $41 +$21 +53%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 +$2 +106%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $3 +$2 +82%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $246 −$245 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $41 +$32 +77%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 19 $30 +$14 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 18 $5 $0 -4%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $20 +$17 +83%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5 May 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $20 32m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $34 39m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 43m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $41 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $118 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $3 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $230 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 80¢ $60 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.72 · official $29.76 (match) · 1838 history records