Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2be8…75ae weather 937 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$27 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate83%766W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$28
14 days+$11
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$33
other 5% −$9
sports 4% +$4
politics 1% −$12
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 35% -11.0%
≤30d 584 +1.3% -8.3% 85% 49% -8.1%
≤90d 924 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 49% -9.1%
all 924 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 49% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 49% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 17% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses766 / 158
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)924 / 937
History coverage60d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 924 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 83¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 96¢ 91¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? No 90¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? No 86¢ 70¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 88¢ 71¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? No 87¢ 64¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? No 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? No 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Sunrisers Hyderabad 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? No 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? No 69¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? No 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? No 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? No 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$8 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 24¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 40¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 65¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 65¢ $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.86 · official $135.09 (match) · 2012 history records