Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be5…00c0 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized +$12 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$174
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$86
sports 42% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -77.9% -80.0% 8% 8% -78.6%
≤30d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 21% 21% -15.9%
≤90d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 21% 21% -15.9%
all 14 -31.0% -37.6% 21% 21% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 21% -15.9%
10% -43.5% 21% -23.9%
15% -49.0% 21% -31.3%
20% -54.0% 21% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$19 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 16¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$68 +442%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $134 +$80 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $214 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $134 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.89 · official $29.18 · 19 history records