Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2be5…5c2a sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,343 (+10%) realized +$1,487 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$778per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$232
other 28% +$907
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.3% -6.5% 77% 69% +5.6%
≤30d 13 +3.3% -6.5% 77% 69% +5.6%
≤90d 13 +3.3% -6.5% 77% 69% +5.6%
all 13 +3.3% -6.5% 77% 69% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 69% +5.6%
10% -15.5% 38% -4.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.6% 23% -13.7%
20% -31.1% 8% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$250 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,243
Realized+$1,487
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$778
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1,320 $1,308 −$12 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 87¢ 92¢ $927 $975 +$48 (+5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $974 $960 −$14 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 42¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $275 −$275 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $560 +$267 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $149 +$26 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $503 +$145 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $830 +$667 +80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,332 +$150 +11%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $950 +$381 +40%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $775 +$175 +23%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $321 +$7 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $661 +$114 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $559 +$103 +18%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $465 −$198 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 87¢ $931 19m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $930 20m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 67¢ $558 52m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 63¢ $68 55m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Elise Mertens 41¢ $67 56m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 42¢ $234 57m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Elise Mertens 42¢ $234 58m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 44¢ $264 58m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 50¢ $264 59m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 67¢ $362 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Elise Mertens 32¢ $361 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 71¢ $826 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $826 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $560 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $982 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,338 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $174 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $649 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,497 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $323 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $252 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $252 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 84¢ $149 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1,482 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,332 15h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 99¢ $1,331 15h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 70¢ $950 17h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $951 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 62¢ $275 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,243.32 · official $3,243.32 (match) · 45 history records