Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be2…82fa weather 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$250 (-4%) realized −$213 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%33W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$187
14 days−$215
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$192
weather 15% −$97
politics 15% −$94
crypto 13% −$7
finance 13% −$83
world 9% +$39
sports 4% −$12
culture 2% −$13
tech 2% −$25
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -53.7% -58.1% 10% 3% -31.1%
≤30d 98 -35.0% -41.2% 12% 5% -22.3%
≤90d 223 -21.6% -29.0% 15% 8% -16.5%
all 223 -21.6% -29.0% 15% 8% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 8% -16.5%
10% -35.8% 4% -24.5%
15% -42.0% 3% -31.8%
20% -47.7% 2% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses33 / 190
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)223 / 231
History coverage68d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $60 $95 +$35 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $60 $25 −$35 (-59%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Dynasty" during Chinese State Banquet? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? Jun 22 $110 −$59 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 22 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 3? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $1 $0 -48%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 22 $8 $0 -6%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe Jun 22 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mike Thurmond finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Jun 22 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jason Estes finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia G Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 22 $27 $0 -1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 22 $43 −$7 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Geoff Duncan finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $28 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 2¢ $1 22m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 7¢ $3 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 8¢ $4 30m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 5¢ $2 33m
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe SELL No 87¢ $17 33m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 5¢ $2 36m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 6¢ $3 38m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 6¢ $3 38m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 6¢ $3 39m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 6¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 3¢ $1 47m
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe BUY No 91¢ $18 48m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 3¢ $0 51m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World SELL Yes 92¢ $18 55m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $7 56m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $12 56m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World SELL No 8¢ $2 56m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 9¢ $2 57m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 5¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 93¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.20 · official $124.22 · 931 history records