Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be2…5fa6 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,593 (-55%) realized −$3,584 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days−$233
14 days−$233
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2,369
other 36% −$442
crypto 22% −$720
sports 2% +$82
politics 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.9% -48.4% 12% 12% -28.6%
≤30d 8 -42.9% -48.4% 12% 12% -28.6%
≤90d 10 -47.6% -52.6% 10% 10% -31.9%
all 38 -28.1% -34.9% 21% 18% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 18% -53.9%
10% -41.1% 18% -58.3%
15% -46.8% 18% -62.3%
20% -52.0% 18% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$139 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3,584
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage288d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $199 +$122 +62%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $294 −$142 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$16 -25%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $412 −$119 -29%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $299 −$98 -33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $43 −$43 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $1,173 −$1,129 -96%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $301 −$301 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $151 −$151 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $59 −$57 -97%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $154 −$147 -96%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $453 −$453 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14? Dec 10 $598 +$23 +4%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $10 +$90 +898%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $28 +$65 +232%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $126 −$74 -59%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $59 −$9 -15%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $23 +$18 +78%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $150 +$121 +81%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $260 +$138 +53%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 7? Dec 07 $184 −$184 -100%
Leeds United vs. Liverpool: O/U 2.5 Dec 06 $102 +$82 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $355 −$255 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 19? Nov 19 $259 −$259 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $123 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $158 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $199 2h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 34h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 34h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $152 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $49 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $66 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $214 3d
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4d
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $40 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $235 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.73 · official $15.35 · 242 history records