Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be0…75b0 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%37W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$244
14 days−$244
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$62
other 16% −$154
crypto 6% −$175
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -11.4% -19.9% 65% 23% -13.1%
≤30d 58 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 22% -13.2%
≤90d 58 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 22% -13.2%
all 58 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 22% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 22% -13.2%
10% -28.8% 14% -21.5%
15% -35.7% 10% -29.1%
20% -42.0% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$33 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage23d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Martyna Kubka 75¢ 79¢ $170 $179 +$9 (+5%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 93¢ 72¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $527 −$238 -45%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $201 +$21 +10%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $200 +$3 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $270 +$1 +0%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $201 +$37 +18%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $201 +$19 +10%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $351 −$14 -4%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 −$5 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $111 +$30 +27%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $231 +$11 +5%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $110 +$9 +8%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $215 +$15 +7%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $101 −$29 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $200 +$7 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $252 +$7 +3%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $252 $0 +0%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $211 +$39 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$95 -75%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$13 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $213 −$111 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 75¢ $171 1m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $68 2m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 93¢ $100 11m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 73¢ $50 13m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Facundo Acosta 100¢ $208 14m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 96¢ $200 17m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Florian Broska 18¢ $29 18m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $222 18m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 77¢ $126 37m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Facundo Acosta 24¢ $52 39m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 90¢ $201 42m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot SELL Cosme de Ravel 100¢ $203 45m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Cosme de Ravel 99¢ $200 46m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $271 59m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 100¢ $270 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Michele Ribecai 100¢ $210 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Michele Ribecai 95¢ $200 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $105 1h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 91¢ $201 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $238 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $100 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 84¢ $201 3h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 92¢ $200 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $110 17h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 100¢ $220 18h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 91¢ $201 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $100 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $329 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 91¢ $301 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 9¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.95 · official $255.95 (match) · 150 history records