Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bdf…7c06 crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%83W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$7
sports 27% −$9
other 5% +$2
world 3% $0
politics 3% −$7
finance 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.8% -26.6% 60% 40% -11.2%
≤30d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 80% 60% -0.6%
≤90d 49 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 47% -23.1%
all 124 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 41% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 41% -13.8%
10% -18.9% 31% -22.1%
15% -26.7% 18% -29.6%
20% -33.9% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses83 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage138d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 −$1 -62%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 +$1 +17%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$1 +17%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 $0 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1 $0 +23%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $1 $0 +24%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1 $0 +38%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $1 +$2 +172%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $1 +$1 +109%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1 +$2 +188%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $1 $0 -30%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 $0 +41%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 13 $3 $0 +12%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $13 −$6 -50%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 12 $20 −$17 -84%
Will CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $2 $0 -19%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 11 $9 −$7 -72%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $9 +$3 +29%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Portugal end in a draw? Mar 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 13 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 68¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 31¢ $1 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $2 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $6 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 78¢ $5 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 45¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 62¢ $1 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $1 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 36¢ $1 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $1 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 80¢ $5 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 59¢ $1 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 71¢ $1 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 91¢ $1 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $1 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 99¢ $2 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 60¢ $1 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 100¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 319 history records