Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2B 0x2bdf…c7e9 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$65 (+120%) realized +$66 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +121% what you keep after slip

Net edge+121%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown23%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+120.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+144.1%	+120.9%	50%	50%	+155.0%
≤30d	2	+144.1%	+120.9%	50%	50%	+155.0%
≤90d	2	+144.1%	+120.9%	50%	50%	+155.0%
all	2	+144.1%	+120.9%	50%	50%	+155.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+120.9%	50%	+155.0%
10%	+99.8%	50%	+130.6%
15%	+80.5%	50%	+108.3%
20%	+62.8%	50%	+87.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +182% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +144% · $-wt +182% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$80 vs −$15 · ×5.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown23%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$8	$8	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$20	+$80	+388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$8	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$11	41h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	50¢	$4	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.46 · official $17.46 (match) · 6 history records