Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2bde…c804 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$170 (-9%) realized −$205 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$26
other 31% −$193
politics 27% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +7.6% -2.6% 57% 57% -30.8%
≤90d 7 +7.6% -2.6% 57% 57% -30.8%
all 8 +7.5% -2.7% 62% 50% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 50% -21.7%
10% -12.0% 50% -29.2%
15% -20.5% 50% -36.0%
20% -28.3% 50% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$193 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage158d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $276 $299 +$23 (+8%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $171 $0 −$171 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 22 $197 −$194 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 21 $174 −$171 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 20 $210 +$160 +76%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 May 20 $107 +$104 +97%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $63 +$44 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $32 +$31 +97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $246 −$214 -87%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 18 $500 +$35 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $166 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $116 5d
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $197 23d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $174 24d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $210 25d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $107 26d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 26d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $63 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 50¢ $32 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $31 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $123 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $123 27d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $535 147d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $200 155d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $300 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.60 · official $350.67 (match) · 30 history records