Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2bdc…e1dc world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,167 (-15%) realized −$4,177 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%38W / 49L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$312
7 days−$982
14 days−$1,932
30 days−$2,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2,597
other 11% −$396
crypto 6% −$982
politics 4% −$172
sports 3% −$46
finance 1% +$5
tech 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.4% -35.2% 29% 21% -34.6%
≤30d 54 -17.0% -24.9% 37% 17% -28.5%
≤90d 73 -16.5% -24.5% 42% 21% -28.0%
all 87 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 22% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 22% -23.8%
10% -30.4% 8% -31.1%
15% -37.1% 3% -37.7%
20% -43.3% 2% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$111 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$4,177
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses38 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage111d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $200 $170 −$30 (-15%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $202 −$38 -19%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$2 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$147 -74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $400 −$218 -55%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $200 +$18 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $300 +$76 +25%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $201 +$25 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $400 −$2 -1%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $400 −$323 -81%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,300 −$300 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $300 +$16 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,700 −$601 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $800 −$419 -52%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $300 −$55 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$13 +13%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 07 $103 +$9 +9%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $100 +$18 +18%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 07 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $206 +$17 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $336 +$40 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $301 −$8 -3%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 07 $202 −$12 -6%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 06 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $100 −$17 -18%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 06 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $100 −$20 -20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $100 −$4 -4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 06 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$22 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $103 −$8 -8%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? May 25 $100 −$23 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $100 −$26 -26%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 23 $100 −$29 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $400 −$159 -40%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $164 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $198 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $200 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 98¢ $218 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 94¢ $376 11h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $250 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $227 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $200 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $178 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $170 3d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 62¢ $89 3d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 3d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $200 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 6d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $76 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $200 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $77 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $200 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $300 6d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 10d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.26 · official $310.29 (match) · 223 history records