Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bdb…4905 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$20
politics 24% −$9
sports 8% −$14
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage129d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $175 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $132 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 19 $389 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $402 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $469 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $314 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $273 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $257 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $318 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $476 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $306 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 5h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $185 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 27d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $186 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $186 28d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $132 28d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $132 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $168 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $141 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $141 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 30d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 30d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $134 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records