Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bd9…0e22 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$191 (+6%) realized +$93 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$213
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$284
crypto 7% +$24
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 53% -1.2%
≤30d 15 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 53% -1.2%
≤90d 15 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 53% -1.2%
all 16 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 56% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 56% -1.2%
10% -20.1% 19% -10.7%
15% -27.8% 12% -19.3%
20% -34.9% 6% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage222d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $691 $789 +$98 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $201 +$28 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$25 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $600 +$8 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $199 +$26 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $301 +$82 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $201 +$94 +47%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? Mar 26 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $267 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $226 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $226 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $199 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $301 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $295 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.49 · official $789.49 (match) · 43 history records