Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2bd5…26cc sports 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 186d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$988 (+0%) realized +$997 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%488W / 293L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 186d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,033
other 0% +$85
weather 0% +$9
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -78.2%
≤30d 24 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -78.2%
≤90d 24 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -78.2%
all 781 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 32% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 32% -9.0%
10% -22.9% 28% -17.7%
15% -30.3% 25% -25.6%
20% -37.2% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$185 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$846
Realized+$997
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses488 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)781 / 763
History coverage186d ⚠
Avg bet$400
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $255 $252 −$2 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Kings vs. Ducks Jun 18 $744 −$744 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-9.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-11.5) Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Rams: O/U 49.5 Jun 18 $47 −$113 -239%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Mavericks vs. Heat Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Suns vs. Kings Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Jun 18 $232 −$232 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougars Jun 18 $23 −$490 -2121%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Wild vs. Jets Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Lions (-10.5) Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5 Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$324 +106%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers Mar 09 $100 +$28 +28%
Rockets vs. Spurs Mar 09 $100 +$49 +49%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 09 $100 +$25 +25%
Magic vs. Bucks Mar 09 $100 +$69 +70%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 09 $100 +$27 +27%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Mar 08 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Mar 08 $4 $0 +1%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $300 +$53 +18%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $365 +$217 +59%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $324 +$76 +24%
76ers vs. Hawks Mar 08 $400 +$221 +55%
Knicks vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5 Mar 07 $307 +$23 +8%
Pacers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Mar 07 $121 +$3 +2%
Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 224.5 Mar 07 $419 +$5 +1%
Pacers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Mar 07 $441 +$6 +1%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Mar 07 $312 +$210 +67%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $392 +$118 +30%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Mar 07 $648 +$14 +2%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $310 −$310 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-9.5) Mar 07 $258 +$7 +3%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 07 $1,363 +$258 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $203 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $259 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $628 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $72 5d
Bulls vs. Kings BUY Bulls 56¢ $100 101d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Hornets 64¢ $100 101d
Pacers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 78¢ $100 101d
Magic vs. Bucks BUY Magic 59¢ $100 101d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $100 101d
Wizards vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 80¢ $100 101d
Mavericks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 79¢ $100 101d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Pistons 52¢ $100 101d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $51 101d
Knicks vs. Lakers BUY Knicks 58¢ $100 101d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $51 101d
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) BUY Warriors 99¢ $4 102d
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) BUY Warriors 99¢ $1 102d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Warriors 99¢ $1 102d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Clippers 38¢ $50 102d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 52¢ $100 102d
Warriors vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 85¢ $300 102d
Jazz vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 81¢ $324 103d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $71 103d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $240 103d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Clippers 70¢ $37 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $846.09 · official $846.09 (match) · 3500 history records