Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bd3…6908 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$9
other 17% −$2
politics 9% $0
sports 0% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 27 +31.8% +19.2% 37% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 36 +23.8% +12.0% 39% 3% -9.2%
all 39 +14.3% +3.4% 36% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -6.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -15.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -23.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage489d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $106 +$6 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $14 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $241 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $94 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $68 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $39 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $221 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $218 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 13 $219 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $219 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $216 +$3 +1%
Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Marshall vs. Old Dominion Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $25 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.94 · official $35.47 (match) · 164 history records