Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bd2…bce9 crypto 937 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-3%) realized −$75 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%641W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$106
other 15% −$35
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +10.4% -0.2% 83% 83% +7.5%
≤30d 215 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 71% -16.0%
≤90d 932 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 62% -15.9%
all 932 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 62% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 62% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 47% -23.9%
15% -27.8% 26% -31.3%
20% -34.9% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses641 / 291
Open positions5
Markets (closed)932 / 937
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 932 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $23 $57 +$34 (+149%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $35 +$28 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.31 · official $110.31 (match) · 2189 history records