Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bd2…c21b
politics · 47 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
+$543,945 +118%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$556,471 · open −$10,381
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Chart Positions 4 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$378
14 days+$2,099
30 days+$2,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $885 $980 +$95 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Yes 26¢ $8,088 $376 −$7,712 (-95%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Yes 27¢ $2,876 $117 −$2,759 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $107 −$93 -87%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$16 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $140 −$71 -51%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $89 −$15 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $280 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,051 −$579 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2,605 +$1,152 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,147 +$1,721 +150%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 22 $703 −$15 -2%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 21 $2,344 −$2,344 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Apr 21 $837 +$163 +20%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 05 $9,000 −$3,197 -36%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 05 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 27 $11,841 −$423 -4%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31? Jan 04 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? Jan 04 $423 −$384 -91%
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30? Dec 01 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30? Dec 01 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30? Nov 29 $622 +$200 +32%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 29 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Nov 29 $10,011 −$4,881 -49%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%? Nov 03 $989 −$289 -29%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Oct 30 $216 −$18 -8%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%? Oct 30 $1,158 −$200 -17%
Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ? Nov 10 $370 +$630 +170%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Nov 10 $3,125 +$11,081 +354%
Will Trump win 7 swing states? Nov 10 $14,083 +$55,918 +397%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $171,583 +$528,416 +308%
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 08 $10,130 +$4,069 +40%
Will a Republican win Maine Presidential Election? Nov 08 $8,099 −$8,099 -100%
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 06 $7,805 −$4,110 -53%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Nov 06 $3,322 −$3,147 -95%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 02 $14,151 −$917 -6%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? Nov 02 $1,853 +$16 +1%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election? Nov 02 $98 +$31 +32%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 02 $12 −$1 -7%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 Nov 02 $882 −$405 -46%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Nov 02 $944 +$133 +14%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 02 $144,260 −$12,544 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $2,680 +$100 +4%
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? Oct 11 $12,200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 93% +$562,545
world 6% −$14,306
other 0% −$490
economics 0% −$1,599
crypto 0% −$54
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $144 9h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 36h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 36h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 45h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 45h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 4d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes $14 6d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $42 6d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $69 6d
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $74 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $280 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,472 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $3,757 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $590 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $90 9d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $280 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $201 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $605 9d
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $89 9d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes $58 9d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 45¢ $687 20d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 46d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes $72 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $2,605 46d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,005 46d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $280 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.8% -31.0% 14% 14% -3.1%
≤30d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 22% +16.7%
≤90d 12 -16.6% -24.5% 25% 25% -10.4%
all 43 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 26% +103.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 26% +103.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 21% +84.0%
15% -26.0% 16% +66.2%
20% -33.3% 12% +49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,667.75 · official $1,667.75 (match) · 947 history records