Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bce…c1ec world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$5
other 11% −$4
crypto 7% $0
finance 6% $0
tech 4% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 15% 0% -10.6%
all 29 -7.0% -15.8% 38% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -11.0%
10% -23.9% 0% -19.5%
15% -31.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $35 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 24 $8 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 33h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $19 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $19 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $18 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $26 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $25 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $8 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $35 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $5 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $26 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $31 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $29.16 (match) · 88 history records