Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bcd…cbfb other 937 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 248d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,428 (+8%) realized +$5,214 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%476W / 516L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 249d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$549
world 20% −$474
politics 14% −$362
sports 11% +$1,521
weather 7% +$313
tech 4% +$430
crypto 3% +$117
economics 1% +$296
culture 1% −$16
finance 1% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -77.6% -79.7% 12% 11% -68.3%
≤30d 282 -39.1% -44.9% 37% 33% -24.8%
≤90d 552 -23.2% -30.6% 46% 38% -27.9%
all 992 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 38% -14.4%
10% -24.7% 29% -22.6%
15% -32.0% 23% -30.1%
20% -38.7% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$52 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$5,447
Realized+$5,214
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses476 / 516
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions78
Markets (closed)992 / 937
History coverage249d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 992 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $525 $529 +$4 (+1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 91¢ 94¢ $504 $523 +$19 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $305 $310 +$5 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 70¢ 86¢ $221 $272 +$51 (+23%)
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $261 $258 −$3 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 54¢ 54¢ $225 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $175 $212 +$37 (+21%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $131 $192 +$60 (+46%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $162 $175 +$14 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $114 $138 +$24 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 59¢ 94¢ $75 $119 +$44 (+59%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No 61¢ 78¢ $90 $115 +$25 (+28%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 59¢ 64¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $90 $104 +$14 (+16%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 99¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $95 $103 +$8 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $72 $52 −$20 (-27%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 36¢ 72¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+97%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 47¢ $51 $43 −$8 (-16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 78¢ 91¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 79¢ 82¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 410 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the Armenian PM Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say “Trans / Transgender” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "Moon" during his announcement on September 2? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will GameStop buy more Bitcoin before August? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $80m and $85 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Blue Bloc win by 1–4 seats? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belarus win Intervision 2025? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in August? Jun 17 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Stokes Twins' next video get 15 million or more views on day 1? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for 10 seconds or more? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Semiconductor" or "Chip" during events with South Kore Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Venezuela win Intervision 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a success Jun 17 $213 −$215 -101%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Mars" during his announcement on September 2? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 17 $85 −$114 -134%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say “America / American” 35+ times during his Iowa State Fa Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Red Bloc win by 12–15 seats? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say “MAGA / Make America Great Again” during his Iowa State Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8 Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Chip" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $10 7m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $40 7m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $100 8m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $75 13m
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 20m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $3 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $8 24h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 74¢ $166 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $11 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $26 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $31 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $41 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $81 42h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $41 46h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $8 46h
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 46h
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $465 46h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 77¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $6 2d
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian gen BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian gen BUY Yes 55¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,446.87 · official $5,446.88 (match) · 3500 history records