Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2bca…835d crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$639 (+3%) realized +$846 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%49W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$782
7 days+$779
14 days+$738
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$631
other 5% +$423
sports 2% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +46.6% +32.7% 55% 55% +58.5%
≤30d 61 +18.8% +7.5% 56% 48% -5.5%
≤90d 88 +9.7% -0.7% 56% 48% -3.4%
all 88 +9.7% -0.7% 56% 48% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 48% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 38% -12.6%
15% -18.9% 30% -21.1%
20% -26.9% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$107 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$846
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses49 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage34d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $207 $1 −$207 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $135 +$296 +219%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $578 +$375 +65%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $207 +$93 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 +$11 +649%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $16 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 +$3 +38%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $38 −$38 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$5 +12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 +$2 +21%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $317 +$85 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $161 −$159 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $639 −$426 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $574 +$88 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $318 +$78 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,341 +$237 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $133 −$117 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $539 +$139 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $492 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $121 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$137 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$93 +1448%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $426 +$163 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $341 +$144 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $290 −$260 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 96¢ $431 1m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $714 2m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 55¢ $16 30m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 55¢ $249 30m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 55¢ $75 30m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 60¢ $60 36m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $119 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 32¢ $239 40m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $300 45m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $71 55m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $134 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $88 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.61 (match) · 1086 history records