Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2bca…ae50 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$239 (+20%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$135
sports 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +50.1% +35.8% 80% 60% +3.1%
≤30d 5 +50.1% +35.8% 80% 60% +3.1%
≤90d 5 +50.1% +35.8% 80% 60% +3.1%
all 5 +50.1% +35.8% 80% 60% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 60% +3.1%
10% +22.8% 60% -6.8%
15% +10.9% 40% -15.8%
20% +0.1% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$11 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.49 per $1 lost it wins $16.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $948 +$98 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $206 +$47 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$29 +235%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $1,046 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $262 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $248 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $0 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $88 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $292 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $58 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $56 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $178 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $103 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $103 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $12 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records