Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2bca…d262 crypto 540 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-16%) realized −$125 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%174W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$24
14 days−$5
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$150
other 2% −$8
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -46.2% -51.3% 23% 23% -39.2%
≤30d 63 -18.9% -26.7% 27% 27% -23.8%
≤90d 408 -54.7% -59.0% 16% 15% -46.9%
all 530 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 30% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 30% -26.5%
10% -36.4% 27% -33.6%
15% -42.6% 23% -40.0%
20% -48.2% 19% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses174 / 356
Open positions10
Markets (closed)530 / 540
History coverage115d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 8¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +195%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +168%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +182%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +302%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$4 +192%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$11 +1058%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $1 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 4¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $1 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.56 · official $8.57 (match) · 1349 history records