Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…b4da crypto 483 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,229 (-2%) realized −$835 · open −$394
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%289W / 460L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,985
7 days−$3,610
14 days−$3,256
30 days−$2,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2,881
other 40% −$1,818
finance 10% +$633
crypto 5% +$615
sports 4% +$321
tech 1% −$304
culture 0% −$22
politics 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -88.1% -89.2% 8% 7% -43.9%
≤30d 334 -73.1% -75.7% 17% 12% -18.0%
≤90d 706 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 33% -14.7%
all 749 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 33% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 33% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 30% -20.2%
15% -26.1% 23% -27.9%
20% -33.3% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$37 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1,061
Realized−$835
Unrealized−$394
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses289 / 460
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions10
Markets (closed)749 / 483
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 749 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $289 $279 −$10 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $393 $236 −$157 (-40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $292 $204 −$88 (-30%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $98 $116 +$19 (+19%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $58 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $191 $35 −$156 (-81%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$28 -936%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $4 +$153 +3468%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$78 +4482%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $3 +$16 +582%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$5 -244%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $0 +$92 +18954%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 23¢ $59 3m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $179 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $65 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $227 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $120 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $16 7h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $40 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $43 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $273 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $72 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $89 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $82 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $170 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $90 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 93¢ $93 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $198 20h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $153 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.79 · official $1,060.74 (match) · 3500 history records