Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…1322 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+12%) realized +$59 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$50
sports 10% +$28
economics 4% −$18
culture 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +28.1% +15.9% 40% 40% +7.8%
≤30d 10 +28.1% +15.9% 40% 40% +7.8%
≤90d 10 +28.1% +15.9% 40% 40% +7.8%
all 13 +5.7% -4.4% 31% 31% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 31% +0.2%
10% -13.5% 31% -9.4%
15% -21.9% 23% -18.1%
20% -29.5% 15% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$6 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage182d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $134 −$7 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 −$4 -4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$40 +386%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $79 +$45 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$13 +42%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Dec 22 $14 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 27m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $81 27m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $84 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $95 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 6h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $47 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $50 15h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 15h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 19h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $79 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $0 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 181d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 SELL Yes 62¢ $13 181d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 BUY Yes 68¢ $14 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.87 · official $61.87 (match) · 32 history records