Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…0318 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$34
sports 23% −$19
politics 9% −$9
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage128d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $335 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $376 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $336 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $244 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $388 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $137 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $481 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 19m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 4h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 5h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 9h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 16h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 21h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 23h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 25h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 26h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 28h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 29h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 39h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 41h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 41h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 43h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 44h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 46h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 47h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.87 · official $48.87 (match) · 1340 history records