Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc6…e280 weather 63 markets active 17d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$799 (+0%) realized +$799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5,102per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$42,578
crypto 7% +$8,048
politics 4% +$14,985
other 2% −$6,682
world 0% −$668
tech 0% +$27,695
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +85.2% +67.5% 100% 100% +67.5%
≤90d 15 -26.5% -33.5% 67% 7% -9.4%
all 63 +4.3% -5.6% 44% 22% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 22% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 21% -24.4%
15% -22.9% 14% -31.7%
20% -30.5% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,957 vs −$1,542 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5,102
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$6 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? Apr 22 $2,783 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? Apr 20 $56,187 +$113 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? Apr 18 $125 −$119 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 16? Apr 17 $56,207 +$113 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 15? Apr 16 $55,944 +$56 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 14? Apr 15 $55,832 +$168 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8? Apr 08 $29 −$28 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri Apr 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3? Apr 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2? Apr 02 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? Mar 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 23? Mar 25 $49 +$16 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 22 Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 20, 202 Mar 22 $16 +$24 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on March 18? Mar 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Mar 17 $3,380 −$3,380 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 14? Mar 17 $1,505 +$1,995 +132%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 12? Mar 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9? Mar 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Mar 08 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 7? Mar 07 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Mar 06 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 4? Mar 04 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2? Mar 03 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2? Mar 02 $14,080 −$14,080 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 1? Mar 02 $14,960 +$1,040 +7%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on February 26? Feb 28 $140 +$27,860 +19900%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 24? Feb 24 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on February 23? Feb 23 $550 −$550 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February Feb 22 $16,200 −$16,200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Fe Feb 22 $585 +$65 +11%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 20, Feb 22 $12,375 +$15,125 +122%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on February 19? Feb 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 18? Feb 18 $525 −$525 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? Feb 18 $526 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe Feb 15 $6,813 −$6,813 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 54¢ $6 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 64d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $39 67d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $2,783 70d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 70d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 71d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 71d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 71d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $118 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $56,187 73d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 74d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $56,088 74d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $55,880 74d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 74d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $55,832 76d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 82d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 86d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on Apri BUY No 98¢ $11 86d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2? BUY No 3¢ $4 87d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 1? BUY No 1¢ $1 88d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 90d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 90d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 90d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 91d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 91d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 91d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 91d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 133 history records