Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc5…adb1 crypto 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (186 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$456 (+5%) realized +$457 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%238W / 209L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day185.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (186 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 53% -4.5%
≤30d 447 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 53% -4.5%
≤90d 447 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 53% -4.5%
all 447 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 53% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 53% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 52% -13.6%
15% -22.8% 52% -22.0%
20% -30.4% 52% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$457
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses238 / 209
Open positions3
Markets (closed)447 / 450
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day185.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 60¢ 76¢ $36 $45 +$9 (+26%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Up 52¢ 36¢ $31 $22 −$9 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$23 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$33 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$20 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$22 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$17 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$18 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$2 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$22 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $43 −$3 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$22 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$21 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $35 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $34 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.83 · official $83.10 · 825 history records