Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bc5…8a35
other · 68 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$107 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$107 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses41 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage156d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 3 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on February 3? Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $5 +$30 +591%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $30 +$59 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $19 +$23 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $29 −$16 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $4 +$25 +593%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 11 $3 +$2 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 11 $5 +$7 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $3 +$3 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $6 +$7 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $1 +$7 +700%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 01 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $5 +$18 +339%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 31 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 27 $15 −$13 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $84 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 17 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 16 $5 +$4 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 16 $27 +$6 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 15 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 11 $24 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$102
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 12d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 21d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 21d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 21d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 23d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 23d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 23d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 52d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $35 61d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 66d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 72d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 72d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 33% -28.1%
≤90d 15 +9.3% -1.2% 33% 33% -11.8%
all 65 +45.0% +31.2% 63% 57% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.2% 57% +3.1%
10% +18.6% 43% -6.8%
15% +7.1% 37% -15.8%
20% -3.4% 29% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.34 · official $7.34 (match) · 605 history records