Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2B 0x2bc3…7517 other 17 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+48%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$61
sports 16% −$13
crypto 12% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +30.4% +17.9% 24% 24% +34.1%
≤30d 17 +30.4% +17.9% 24% 24% +34.1%
≤90d 17 +30.4% +17.9% 24% 24% +34.1%
all 17 +30.4% +17.9% 24% 24% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 24% +34.1%
10% +6.7% 24% +21.2%
15% -3.6% 24% +9.5%
20% -13.1% 18% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×5.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$66 +1288%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +340%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records