Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc0…ac69 sports 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$660 (-4%) realized −$532 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%366W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$223est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$3
14 days−$96
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$571
crypto 26% −$359
other 3% −$149
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +52.1% +37.6% 58% 58% -0.8%
≤30d 140 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 44% -8.9%
≤90d 470 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 43% -11.6%
all 718 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 41% -12.8%
10% -26.2% 31% -21.2%
15% -33.3% 20% -28.8%
20% -39.9% 14% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$532
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses366 / 352
Est. fees paid−$223
Open positions5
Markets (closed)718 / 723
History coverage122d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 25¢ $184 $169 −$15 (-8%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-86%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 0¢ $71 $2 −$69 (-97%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Leviatán Esports 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $23 −$20 -86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$8 +62%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$10 +82%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $40 +$23 +56%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $11 +$11 +96%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $6 +$14 +223%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $33 −$31 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $32 +$13 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$8 -39%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $39 −$25 -64%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$13 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $69 +$33 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$14 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$17 +82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$57 -78%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$21 +93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$23 +71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$10 -73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$5 +66%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$28 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +172%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$1 -7%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $10 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $27 −$8 -30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -96%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $47 −$7 -14%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $48 −$29 -59%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $39 −$16 -42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $18 −$17 -91%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$1 -5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$1 +5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $47 −$18 -39%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $16 +$6 +37%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $16 +$6 +39%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$10 -39%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $28 −$19 -67%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $91 −$49 -54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $89 +$10 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $43 +$11 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $19 −$13 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 76¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $26 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 20¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 20¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 5¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 10¢ $4 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $4 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $30 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $2 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 32¢ $3 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $21 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $1 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $18 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $3 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $13 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $22 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $12 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 88¢ $63 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $40 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 15¢ $2 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 80¢ $22 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $9 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $20 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $6 27h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 34¢ $33 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.62 · official $173.62 (match) · 2447 history records