Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc0…7871 crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (591 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$40,504 (+77%) realized +$40,500 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%117W / 365L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day590.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,022
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (591 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 482 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 23% -38.7%
≤30d 482 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 23% -38.7%
≤90d 482 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 23% -38.7%
all 482 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 23% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover590.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 23% -38.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 23% -44.5%
15% -31.5% 21% -49.9%
20% -38.2% 19% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$130 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized+$40,500
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses117 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)482 / 218
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$242
Trades / day590.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 98¢ 98¢ $784 $788 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $618 −$618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 +$23 +45382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $406 −$406 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $432 −$432 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 +$129 +36976%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $169 −$169 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $54 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $40 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.00 · official $548.00 · 3500 history records