Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2bbf…e2fd other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-3%) realized −$139 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$332
14 days−$332
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$27
crypto 9% −$80
politics 8% −$43
sports 2% −$19
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 38% -41.0%
≤30d 16 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 38% -41.0%
≤90d 16 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 38% -41.0%
all 66 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 41% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -13.2%
10% -23.5% 17% -21.5%
15% -30.9% 15% -29.1%
20% -37.6% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage158d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $58 $66 +$8 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$24 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$15 +41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +123%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$10 +49%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Jun 13 $252 −$240 -95%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 13 $338 −$28 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 11 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $4 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $84 −$17 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $70 −$6 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $70 −$19 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $90 +$9 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 08 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 07 $1 +$2 +190%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $41 +$6 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $9 +$10 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $17 −$9 -53%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $21 +$7 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $201 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 31 $170 +$25 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $161 +$72 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 29 Jan 29 $1 $0 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 29? Jan 29 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on January 29? Jan 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $50 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $61 43m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $57 46m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 54m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $29 54m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $42 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $59 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $104 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $105 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $21 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 4d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 SELL Yes 8¢ $3 125d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 BUY Yes 26¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.92 · official $65.89 (match) · 211 history records