Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bbf…5b78 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$53
other 14% −$40
sports 11% −$9
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 45% -8.1%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 45% -8.1%
≤90d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 45% -8.1%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 45% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 45% -8.1%
10% -18.3% 45% -16.9%
15% -26.2% 30% -24.9%
20% -33.4% 30% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +142%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +206%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +121%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $117 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $3 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $3 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $5 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $3 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 33h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records