Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bbb…ec33 crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$147 (+5%) realized +$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$25
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.9% -25.8% 55% 55% -11.1%
≤30d 19 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 47% -8.4%
≤90d 19 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 47% -8.4%
all 19 -11.0% -19.5% 58% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 47% -8.4%
10% -27.2% 26% -17.2%
15% -34.2% 5% -25.2%
20% -40.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$44 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage10d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $212 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $314 +$53 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$68 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $211 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$23 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $116 +$27 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$14 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $212 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $214 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $317 +$91 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $263 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$44 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $367 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $142 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $86 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $120 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $130 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $108 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $241 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $212 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $224 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records