Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bb8…f2cf politics 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+6%) realized +$176 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$215
14 days+$215
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$340
world 39% +$55
economics 4% −$105
other 3% −$97
sports 2% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.8% +4.7% 50% 50% +5.7%
≤30d 3 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤90d 12 -17.7% -25.5% 42% 33% -4.6%
all 12 -17.7% -25.5% 42% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 33% -4.6%
10% -32.6% 33% -13.7%
15% -39.2% 25% -22.1%
20% -45.1% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$42 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage272d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $604 −$24 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $674 +$239 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $292 +$73 +25%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $185 −$5 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 28 $177 +$8 +4%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $72 −$38 -52%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 23 $358 −$20 -6%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 22 $97 −$97 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60 Mar 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 22 $209 +$90 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $27 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $21 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $580 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $604 3d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $603 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $366 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 42¢ $310 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 42¢ $102 15d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $102 15d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 37¢ $103 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $365 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $112 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $180 46d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 86¢ $180 46d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 88¢ $185 49d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $185 49d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? BUY No 95¢ $177 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.20 · official $9.20 (match) · 51 history records