Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bb4…4551 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+3%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%43W / 38L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$457
7 days+$440
14 days+$440
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$440
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 52% +17.1%
≤30d 81 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 52% +17.1%
≤90d 81 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 52% +17.1%
all 81 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 52% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 52% +17.1%
10% -14.2% 51% +5.9%
15% -22.5% 47% -4.3%
20% -30.1% 46% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses43 / 38
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Terence Atmane 44¢ 44¢ $293 $296 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 44¢ 44¢ $241 $239 −$3 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage FaZe 65¢ 55¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $174 +$214 +124%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) Jun 22 $57 +$73 +129%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Jun 22 $129 +$135 +105%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 22 $45 +$44 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $97 +$120 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $126 +$122 +97%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $17 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$2 +60%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $29 +$42 +146%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $83 −$82 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$17 +56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $9 +$16 +172%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $10 +$9 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $143 −$140 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 +$6 +65%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $18 +$4 +24%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $18 +$23 +129%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $6 +$11 +180%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $8 +$7 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $8 +$8 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $8 +$8 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $136 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $162 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $112 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $134 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $80 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $94 9h
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 43¢ $57 11h
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 48¢ $60 13h
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 48¢ $69 13h
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY FaZe 65¢ $2 13h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $21 13h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $24 13h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $38 16h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 53¢ $38 16h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $11 16h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $42 17h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $42 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $45 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $52 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 41¢ $19 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $3 19h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $17 19h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 28¢ $3 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 72¢ $27 21h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $63 21h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $63 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 32¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.16 · official $537.16 (match) · 155 history records