Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bb3…a2f6 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 25% −$1
politics 8% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.8%
all 32 +0.5% -9.0% 47% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage255d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $60 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $54 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $112 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $63 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Nov 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $9 $0 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $60 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $46 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $53 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $53 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $50 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $35 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $15 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $50 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $51 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $60 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $57 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.74 · official $59.74 (match) · 132 history records