Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bb2…5e08 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+6%) realized +$74 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$9
world 30% −$4
sports 9% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 23% -2.9%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 23% -2.9%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 23% -2.9%
all 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 23% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 23% -2.9%
10% -18.6% 23% -12.2%
15% -26.5% 23% -20.7%
20% -33.7% 23% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$9 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 30¢ $93 $41 −$52 (-56%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$92 +267%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 -14%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 −$6 -15%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +261%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $94 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $127 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 41h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 41h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $52 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $34 42h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 88¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $10 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $37 4d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 35 history records