Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bb0…d415 politics 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 1136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,301 (-9%) realized −$4,222 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 52L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,129
14 days−$1,129
30 days−$2,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3,653
world 27% −$2,585
politics 24% +$597
crypto 14% +$1,165
other 4% −$1,681
tech 1% +$1,582
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% -23.1%
≤30d 9 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 44% -27.9%
≤90d 19 -4.2% -13.3% 26% 21% -26.1%
all 67 -20.3% -27.8% 22% 19% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 19% -18.7%
10% -34.8% 16% -26.5%
15% -41.1% 13% -33.6%
20% -46.8% 10% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$480 vs −$225 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1136d coverage
Net worth$2,408
Realized−$4,222
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage1136d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2,487 $2,408 −$79 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $56 +$96 +172%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2,018 −$2,018 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,286 −$8 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,157 +$801 +37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $176 −$106 -60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 09 $972 −$972 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $870 +$583 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $168 +$332 +197%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,248 −$929 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 12 $2,312 −$60 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 05 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 05 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 05 $211 −$46 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $95 −$4 -4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 31 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Mar 31 $59 −$5 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $28 +$2 +7%
US military action against Iran before July? Mar 28 $12,254 −$2,392 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 21 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $8 −$3 -43%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Nov 21 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 19 $74 −$21 -29%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $6,233 −$520 -8%
Will Biden say "Inflation" at DNC speech? Aug 19 $90 −$10 -11%
Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times at DNC speech? Aug 19 $85 −$5 -6%
Will Biden say "Project 2025" at DNC speech? Aug 19 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Biden say "Resign" at DNC speech? Aug 19 $45 −$10 -22%
Will Biden say "Weird "or "Weirdo" at DNC speech? Aug 19 $42 +$14 +33%
Jingliang vs. Prates Aug 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Aug 18 $3,629 −$2,649 -73%
Gamrot vs. Hooker Aug 18 $116 +$384 +329%
Will Trump say "Crypto" at his rally? Aug 18 $90 −$34 -38%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "BTC" at his rally? Aug 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Couch" at his rally? Aug 18 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Trump say "Tampon" at his rally? Aug 17 $300 −$155 -52%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at his rally? Aug 17 $85 −$21 -25%
Will Trump say "Ear" 3 or more times at his rally? Aug 17 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at his rally? Aug 17 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Trump say "Fake News" at his rally? Aug 17 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Trump say "Fire" or "Fired" at his rally? Aug 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day? Aug 17 $360 −$41 -11%
Will Trump say "China" at his press conference? Aug 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at his press conference? Aug 16 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Trump say "Fire" or "Fired" at his press conference? Aug 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16? Aug 16 $275 −$52 -19%
Will Trump say "Crypto" at his press conference? Aug 15 $93 −$85 -91%
Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $605 +$1,584 +262%
Will Trump say "Civil war" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $278 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $283 39h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $367 43h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 43h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $566 43h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $74 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $967 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $152 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $2,018 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,162 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $509 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $1,017 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $302 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $2,317 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 45¢ $797 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $460 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $2,847 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $70 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $162 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $376 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $67 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $80 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,407.54 · official $2,407.54 (match) · 358 history records