Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2baf…70ad other 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (364 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+7%) realized +$44 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day364.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$11
world 12% $0
tech 8% +$2
politics 5% +$1
crypto 5% +$5
sports 2% −$3
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -98.9%
≤90d 7 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -98.9%
all 7 -99.1% -99.2% 0% 0% -98.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover364.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -99.2% 0% -98.9%
10% ← realistic here -99.2% 0% -99.0%
15% -99.3% 0% -99.1%
20% -99.4% 0% -99.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -107% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions209
Markets (closed)7 / 203
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day364.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 209 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will Chainlink dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+328%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? Yes 28¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+307%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 33¢ 41¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 16¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+101%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? Yes 17¢ 46¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+174%)
Will Chainlink dip to $6 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kinetiq reach $0.7 before 2027? Yes 34¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+430%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+114%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat? No 38¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 37¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -148%
Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $0 $0 -95%
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Karmine Corp qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -85%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 1m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 1m
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Acad BUY Yes $0 3m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 11m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 28m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 37m
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? BUY Yes $0 45m
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? SELL Yes $1 53m
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 55m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250? SELL No 55¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.10 · official $158.36 · 3500 history records