Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2ba9…2210 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$451 (+16%) realized +$420 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$225
14 days+$225
30 days+$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$90
sports 36% +$355
crypto 9% +$47
world 8% −$78
politics 6% +$26
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.4% +20.7% 100% 88% +21.8%
≤30d 11 +29.4% +17.1% 91% 73% +23.3%
≤90d 32 -2.8% -12.0% 56% 41% +8.4%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 56% 41% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% +8.4%
10% -20.5% 38% -2.0%
15% -28.1% 19% -11.5%
20% -35.2% 16% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage65d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+22%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $77 $69 −$8 (-11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $71 +$25 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $81 +$27 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $55 +$30 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $65 +$18 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 +$23 +30%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $131 +$71 +54%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 21 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $98 +$30 +30%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $114 −$9 -8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $94 +$4 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $377 +$228 +60%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $76 +$42 +56%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $52 −$4 -7%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $53 +$2 +4%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 10 $31 −$4 -14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 06 $40 −$9 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $48 −$40 -84%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $9 −$9 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 05 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 05 $51 −$7 -13%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $20 +$12 +58%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $50 +$13 +26%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Apr 30 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $158 +$23 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $67 +$4 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $82 −$48 -58%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 24 $12 −$2 -16%
NBA Playoffs: Suns vs. Thunder Total Games O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $1 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $69 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 69¢ $71 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $71 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $73 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL Yes 95¢ $85 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $81 38h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 83¢ $83 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $99 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 65¢ $65 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY Yes 60¢ $55 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $77 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $86 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $57 18d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 18d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 19d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 82¢ $98 19d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $63 21d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 21d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.47 · official $747.48 (match) · 182 history records