Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2ba8…d4a3
weather · 376 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$86 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses346 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 376
History coverage33d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$73
14 days−$67
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 98¢ 94¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 98¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $96 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 −$64 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$61
crypto 0% −$13
politics 0% −$3
other 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 36m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $39 57m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 96¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $39 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $39 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $37 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $39 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $38 15h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $38 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 1% -10.4%
≤30d 364 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 3% -10.4%
≤90d 374 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 3% -10.4%
all 374 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 3% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 1% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.99 · official $37.78 (match) · 861 history records