Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2ba8…8799 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-15%) realized −$104 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$122
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$136
other 23% +$4
sports 4% −$1
world 1% −$3
finance 1% +$3
weather 1% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -35.3% -41.5% 33% 28% -14.2%
≤30d 108 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 24% -27.7%
≤90d 108 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 24% -27.7%
all 108 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 24% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 24% -27.7%
10% -47.6% 23% -34.6%
15% -52.7% 17% -40.9%
20% -57.3% 15% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)108 / 115
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 +$3 +9%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$9 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$5 +133%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +148%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $12 −$7 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $26 50m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 52m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 54m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $61 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 15¢ $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $54 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $1 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 20¢ $4 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 13h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.31 · official $66.31 (match) · 316 history records